Motive power battery market is highly competitive core technology of choice
Resource constraints and the reduction in the double pressure driven, clean electric cars alternative fuel vehicle is the gradual development trend of automobile. laptop battery States have introduced the current subsidy policy and long-term planning to support industry growth, industry growth, is expected to average 50%. New energy vehicles are still new in China, is currently in the embryonic stage from scratch, is expected to help accelerate China's policy in industry development and maturity.
New energy vehicles: a number of obstacles need to cross
Start the commercialization of electric vehicles, not only the product itself to overcome the technical and cost issues, also face constraints in many applications. As the electric car is a systematic project, involving the whole community and transport the energy re-optimization, including clean electricity, charging station construction, power grid construction, transportation mode changed, the use habits and many other factors. Therefore, the promotion of new energy vehicles, explosive growth is difficult to occur, but only may be rising in tandem with the gradual popularization of new energy power generation which is stimulated by the rapid expansion of subsidies is somewhat different. TravelMate 4500 Subsidies for new energy car that is the attitude of the Government's support, but can not say conditions are ripe for industrialization.
Power battery: Domestic infancy
Battery electric vehicles as the core technology, currently can not meet the life, security and other goals of the requirements, which greatly limits the application field of electric vehicles. Potential of the iron lithium battery so there is still a consistent, low temperature performance, high power and other issues, the actual performance from the theoretical value quite different. The development of domestic battery is in its infancy. Now have new energy vehicles involved in the field of research and development and supporting businesses are testing the waters phase, technical and technological capabilities in different ways, so the overall investment risk seems greater still.
Lithium battery materials will show a third of the world pattern, modified lithium manganese battery as the more mature material, will be a more promising ternary lithium iron phosphate material and three-legged race. China keen on lithium iron phosphate line, but the accumulation of patents and technology still lag behind U.S., Japan and China, and the actual LCBTP03003 not high, to meet the power requirements Gaoduan Nenggou lithium materials still need to iron imported from abroad.
Cathode material: the value chain point
For the lithium-ion batteries, cathode materials are sharply higher, the cost of the high proportion (33%) of the core link. The lithium iron phosphate power battery and the other part of the same conventional lithium-ion batteries, cathode materials, technical barriers to higher gross profit margin so high-quality products more than 50%, much higher than 15% of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganese 25%. Other motive power industrial chain links, the diaphragm can only produce a single layer of low-end domestic product, while the three membrane production technology and equipment to China in a lockdown; electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate of raw materials have not yet achieved large-scale localization, gross margins higher; single cells did not realize the scale of production, the current gross margin is also higher, but due to technical barriers are not high, is expected to be a gradual decline.
Generally speaking, Aspire 1300 power battery industry chain are currently entitled to more high-margin areas, but may be the only long-term maintenance lithium iron phosphate cathode material, which determines the production difficulties in short supply situation will last 3 to 5 years. The consistency of the requirements for the next battery manufacturers and automobile manufacturers will tend to choose a large supplier of lithium iron materials market will show strong stronger situation. Technology or process is not dominant in the enterprise, will be squeezed to the outside of the low-end electric car market, and therefore can not share the industry's high growth.
Domestic manufacture of lithium iron phosphate involved in many enterprises, most of the lithium iron phosphate A42-A3 has not understanding, not enough technical accumulation and production experience. Currently has years of experience in the field of battery power much scientific (600 478, closing price 13.30 yuan), Jinrui Technology (600390, closing price 57.46 yuan) and Shanshangufen (600 884, closing price 16.89 yuan) and others were on the lithium iron phosphate adopted a more cautious approach to R & D-based industrial projects without haste, which indirectly shows the lithium iron phosphate on the technical and technological difficulties and immaturity.
Multiple factors determine the power battery and electric car development is not only cost is the bottleneck. Government subsidies and to promote the accelerated development of the industry will, where appropriate, but unlikely to result in explosive growth markets, due to this market is still very small, can accommodate Enterprises Limited, competition will be intense, BTP-APJ1 and performance growing uncertainty great.
Investment targets: a core technology company
According to the mastery of core technology and optimistic about the future level of production the two indexes, the A shares of 25 listed companies value analysis, the proposed investment in the subject of the battery not only has the core technology of choice for mass production but also has the prospect of the company, the proposed concerned about the CAC integration (002 190, closing price 20.19 yuan), China Baoan (000,009, closing price of 9.44 yuan), CITIC Guoan (000 839, closing price 11.08 yuan) BTP-AQJ1 and Jiangsu Guotai (002 091, closing price 23.73 yuan), Fluoride ( 002 407, the closing price 46.90 yuan), when l Technology (300073, closing price 57.46 yuan) and others.
From the stock side, China CITIC Wo Bao as the main industry is the cable television and real estate, low valuation, the valuation of the remaining level of quality stocks are basically reasonable. The battery Desai (000,049, closing price 23.91 yuan), 100 000 000 Wei Li energy (300 014, closing price 29.72 yuan), Sailing shares (600,482 to close at 12.65 yuan) and the Fung Wah Hi-Tech (000636, closing price of 12.30 yuan) higher than the valuation high power battery and do not have the concept of the proposed short-term avoided. Later-stage investment opportunities will mainly come from the policy change and planning put on the plate to bring the good, high-quality stocks of technological progress and production planning, and new entrants into the field of investment targets BTP-ARJ1 battery.